Day 11

3/11/2007 Northwich v Stevenage - Lay Northwich €2.78@6.4 Result: +€2.64 Bank 355.87

3/11/2007 Newport County v Dorchester Town - bet Newport €15@1.61 Result: +€8.76 Bank 364.87 Good run from Newport, clearly intending to be promoted Dorchester completely opposite performance.

3/11/2007 Mallorca v Valencia - Bet mallorca €15@2.58 Result: -€15 Bank 349.63 Players like Guiza, Arango and Ibagaza are doing great job upfront, creating many troubles to opponent defense.
Mallorca hold pretty good home record (3-1-1)
Valencia which is struggling a lot lately especially in defense.
Los Che allowed 14 goals in last five matches.



3/11/2007 Boston @ Ottawa - Money Line (Inc. OT) - Lay Boston 6.59@3.16 closing this one at 3.2 giving a profit of a few cents (+.05) and going on Boston @ Ottawa - Boston +1.5 Bet Ottawa -1.5 Layed Boston +1.5 €19.48@1.77 Result: -€15 Bank 334.63 Ottawa are the best team currently in the NHL, they are last years NHL finalist and
champions of the eastern conference. They play great hockey, very fast,
good technicians.
Patrice Bergeron of Boston injured himself few day ago, and will not play till end of November.

Day 10

2/11/2007 MHC Martin - MHK Kezmarok - Bet on martin
€15@1.55 Result: +€8.25 Bank: €357.97
Kezmarok main strength is home crowd.
Kezmarok their main goal this season is to remain in the highest league.



4/11/2007 San Francisco @ Atlanta - San Francisco +3.5pts
€15@1.89 (waiting to be taken) settled on Day 12
Atlanta has won 1 game this year, and now they are being asked to win a game by at least 4 points!?



2/11/2007 Toronto @ New Jersey - Money Line (Inc. OT) - Bet New Jersey
€15@1.72 Result: +€10.26 Bank: €368.23 Three times in their last five games, Toronto gave up 5 or more goals. They focus on attack too much
Devils
have had some trouble playing against Toronto in New Jersey - loosing 3
of last 4 games, but they also had trouble playing Tampa at home and
yet destroyed them.
Toronto players will surely be uptight in the attack as they have to
keep defending in their mind (they cant leave everything on their
rather poor goalies).



2/11/2007 Swansea v Gillingham - bet Swansea
€15@1.49 Result: -€15 Bank: €353.23
Hiltonfish - 1 bet per Day reccomendation

Day 9

1/11/2007 Wawrinka v Nadal - bet on Wawrinka
€5@4.90 Result: -€5 Bank: €305.13
Not too sure about this one, so only a small stake
Wawrinka is in better form since their last meeting.
Nadal has had problems with his knees
Question about how motivated players who are going to Shanghai are right now.
Nadal has always been a bit down this time of the season.
His
indoor hard and carpet records aren't so great 20-11 and 11-11.
At Australian Open this year Nadal showed his superior skills winning the match 6-2, 6-2, 6-2


1/11/2007 Federer v Nalbandian - Bet Nalbandian
€10@4.1 Result: +€31.50 Bank: €336.95 - I closed my position early for a profit, then traded a few penies to bring my total up by a few more cents.
Not too sure about this one, so a smaller stake
Roger Federer playing his his third tournament during three weeks.
Usually he is tired at this point.
He beat Karlovic but it was hard match for him
Nalbandian in superb form and knows how to beat Federer.
If Federer plays similar to his game against Karlovic then he will lose.
Nalbandian can suit his game for different surfaces where Federer likes it faster.


1/11/2007 Tau Ceramica v Virtus VidiVici Bologna - Tau -11.5
€15@1.9 (Placed on Bwin as Betfair only has a +/-9 market) Result: +€13.50 Bank: €350.45
Bologna there will be a big missing. Spencer Dewrick


1/11/2007 Feyenoord v Groningen - Asian Handicap - +1.5
€15@1.96 Result: -€15 Bank: €335.45
Hiltonfish - 1 bet per Day reccomendation



1/11/2007 Youzhny v Haas - Bet Youzhny
€15@1.84 - Result: +€5.58 Bank: €341.03 (Should not have interfered...Oh well)
I am going to back out of this as the event is in play. Haas is playing better then expected.
It is now midnight, Haas is more interested then I thought he would be so i have backed out and I am on +€5 whatever happens.
Youzhny gave good performance in St. Peterbourgh and in first two rounds in Paris.
Great match against Gonzalez mixing up game with aggressive baseline game and nice volleys.
Haas lost some matches recently that He shouldn't.
Doesn't give best effort on court and making too many easy errors.
Performance was very mediocre against Tipsarevic.
Haas said in interview that Shanghai isn't his main target and He wants to finally end this long season.


1/11/2007 Washington @ NY Rangers - Money Line (Inc. OT) - bet Rangers
€15@1.63 Result: +€8.69 Bank: €349.72
Rangers have a highly experienced team with some superb attacking force - Jagr,Shanahan, Gomez.
Rangers are winless on road but won 4 out of six games at home.
Rangers won last 5 meetings in NY against the Caps.
Washington will still be without Semin,Clark and Poti.

Day 8

31/10/2007 Nieminen v A. Murray : Match Odds - In play - layed Murray
20@1.18 Result: -€3.60 Bank: €280.59


31/10/2007 Federer v Karlovic - Bet Karlovic
€10@7.8 Result: -€10.00 Bank: €270.59


31/10/2007 Sheff Utd v Arsenal - Bet Arsenal
€10@1.62 Result: +€5.89 Bank: €276.48
Hiltonfish - 1 bet per Day reccomendation


31/10/2007 Mahut v Blake - Bet Blake5.89
€10@1.49 Result: +€4.65 Bank: €281.13


31/10/2007 Bonus €29 Bank: €310.13

Day 7

30/10/2007 Grosjean v Tsonga - Bet Grosjean
€10@1.71 Result: €-10 Bank: €279
Tsonga has managed to beat Gasquet in this tournament before, BUT
Has been defeated in same semi-finals by Grisjean 6-1, 6-2

31/10/2007 Houston @ LA Lakers - Total Match Points - Over 193.5
€10@1.99 (Not taken, and will not take below 1.9) Not taken
Lakers at home usually score over 100 points.
with Adelman in charge Houston will go over 100 in most games
Lakers don't normally play slow basketball in Staples Center


31/10/2007 SV Salzburg v Rapid Vienna - lay Vienna
€2 @ 5.3 Result: €1.90 Bank: €280.90


31/10/2007 Coventry v West Ham - Over/Under 1.5 Goals - Bet Over
€10@1.38 Result: €-10 Bank: €284.51
Hiltonfish - 1 bet per Day reccomendation


there was a correction of a bet which cost me .32c so Balance is €284.19

Day 6

We are now entering the 2nd week and we are still risking €10 on each bet. I will kick things off with:

29/10/2007 C Palace v Watford - Over/Under 2.5 goals - Over 2.5
€10@2.04 Result Cancelled bet but made +€1.28 in the process Bank: €279.79
High average of goals for Palace and 2/3 of that for Watford.
20:18 I am getting a bad feeling about this bet, so I will try and close my position at the earliest opportunity. So if a goal is scored I will lay off my position. did so for a profit of 1.28 on unders .9 on overs



29/10/2007 C Palace v Watford - Match odds - In Play
layed the draw €2.5@4.9 Result: +€2.37 Bank: €282.16
Only 7% of half time away wins turned into draws in this league so far this year, and Watford are not heavily into draws (though Palace are).



29/10/2007 Tampa Bay @ NY Rangers - Money Line (Inc. OT) - Bet Rangers
€10@1.72 Result: +€6.84 Bank: €289
Lack of harmony in NY.
Tampa is solid but only at home
Traditionally, not too impressive in NY
goalie Lundqvist (NY) has been solid,giving up league lowest 17 goals

Day 5

I would like to say that Sunday was a disaster. Losing 4 bets in 8 pushed my averages way down, but still up on the day. This is the end of the first week and I have managed to increase my starting capital by 37.9%. So long as I can keep this up I do not mind to the loses.

Two things learned from todays loses:

• The first the overconfidence that made meleave a mistaken bet. The Palermo v Inter bet was a mistake. I realised it but I still kept it. Why? Because I had won so many in a row, how can I lose, even my mistakes will win...yeah right.
• The second is emotion. I bet on Bayern because they are my adopted town's team. "Never bet emotionaly" how many times do I have to hear this or even tell myself!?

I do not regret following Hiltonfish's losing bet. He has done quite well so far on Betfair and I am following his thread with interest (3 loses in 27 bets) and if he can help towards the Q7 then so be it...I will follow his choices

Anyway. A new week is about to start so the best of luck. And a word of warning, just because my first week was good, does not mean I can keep it up, nor that you should be folowing me blindly. If you like some of the reasons I am giving for some of the bets, then fine, but they are not the only reasons. There are probably an equal number of reasons why you should not bet my way.

28/10/2007 Schnyder v Hantuchova - Bet Hantuchova €10@1.91 Result: +€8.64 Bank: €281.94
Since 2005 5 wins in 6 matches for Hantuchova Four of these matches has been on the indoor hard Hantuchova won yesterday so is on a high Their History favours Hantuchova


28/10/2007 Veroia v OFI - Over/Under 2.5 goals - Bet overs €10@2.22 Result: +€11.59 Bank: €293.53
OFI are letting in too many goals,
Promoted to division but have not won anything yet
Words have been had so they need to attack
Veroia suffer from "jetlag" each time they fly out of Crete


28/10/2007 Besiktas v Buyuksehir - Asian Handicap - +1.5 €10@1.98 Result: +€9.12 Bank: €302.65
Besiktas tired from midweek game so will go for easy victory Buyuksehir won all home, lost all away and play defensively So hopefully they will loose by less then 2 goals


28/10/2007 Palermo v Inter - Asian Handicap - Inter -.5 €10@2.04 Result: -€10.00 Bank: €292.65
(This bet was a mistake :-( But I will let it stand)
should have deleted it :-(


28/10/2007 Aberdeen v Falkirk - Back Aberdeen
€10@1.70 Result: -€10.00 Bank: €282.65
Aberdeen way too strong and at home
Hiltonfish - 1 bet per Day reccomendation


28/10/2007 Levante v Atl Madrid - Bet Madrid €10 @ 1.67 Result: +€6.36 Bank: €289.01 Levante are soooo terrible


28/10/2007 Aris v Olympiakos - Aris +1.5pts - Bet Olympiakos €10@2.00 Result: +€9.50 Bank: €298.51 Scales and Wilkinson missing Change of coach at Aris Olympiakos has good team players like players like Jackson, Greer, Blakney and Masijauskas

28/10/2007 Dortmund v B Munich - Asian Handicap - Munich -.5 & -1
€10@2.08 Result: -€10.00 Bank: €288.51 Because they are Bayern München :-)


28/10/2007 Osasuna v Valladolid - Bet Osasuna
€10@1.89 Result: -€10.00 Bank: €278.51
Osasuna started slow but have improved
held their own against Barca and Villareal
Valladolid won the 1 of the last 5 games and lost to teams below them in the rankings